NFL Week 10 picks against the spread: Is Bijan Robinsons light workload actually a good thing?

Arthur Smith has become a weekly punching bag because of his disdain for the fantasy football community’s disdain for his use of rookie Bijan Robinson.

The Falcons drafted the running back with the No. 8 pick, so obviously everyone was very excited. Except for Atlanta’s head coach.

Robinson is averaging only 11 carries a week (at 5 yards a pop) — and only has one carry inside the opponents’ 5-yard line all season. In last week’s loss to the Vikings (yeah, we had the Falcons), Atlanta had a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line. After a false start penalty, Smith called a pass to No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith, a run by Smith, a run by backup running back Tyler Allgeier and then settled for a field goal.

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He sure is clever, isn’t he?

Smith actually kind of is and, besides that example above, has some of the best run-game X’s and O’s in the league. But the 4-5 Falcons — not to mention a lot of fantasy teams — probably would have a couple more wins this season if they’d used Robinson more.

I would have had a couple more wins last week if not for the Joshua Dobbs heroics and the officials gifting the Eagles the win over the Cowboys. But you can’t take this stuff too seriously when guys like Clayton Tune and Tommy DeVito are actually playing QB in the NFL. (What happened to all these camps and passing academies that kids have these days?)

Last week: 8-6 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.

Season record: 73-61-1 ATS, 25-20 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

The Panthers defense did its job last week, only for Carolina to lose to the Colts because of two Bryce Young pick sixes. While D’Onta Foreman in a revenge game against the Panthers intrigues us, the line movement people betting on the Bears does not. Justin Fields started practicing again this week, but his thumb is not ready for the prime-time lights, so Tyson Bagent — a really, really, really poor man’s Trevor Lawrence — gets the call again. Assuming Young — the better quarterback — can limit it to one interception (and it’s not returned for a score), I am confident the Panthers can lose by a field goal … or even win.

The pick: Panthers

Bill Belichick was asked about his job security this week. He essentially grunted in response. Give that man a bratwurst and a beer. Belichick should also enjoy a banged-up Colts defense in Germany, even though Mac Jones has been bad this season. Two things: We’re assuming that Belichick has not lost the locker room, and that the Colts pass rush returns to the dormant state it held until a win over the Panthers. The key is a good start, so that all the European fans — including all those with the Tom Brady jerseys — who always cheer for the team with the lead can keep Jones and the Patriots fired up.

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The pick: Patriots 

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The Bengals have won four in a row and their defense has been just as impressive as Joe Burrow. They held the Seahawks, 49ers and Bears to an average of 16 points and now get C.J. Stroud after the rookie put on a show last week. Since starting the season 1-3, the Bengals have pressured opposing QBs at the third-highest rate in the NFL (42.8 percent of dropbacks). And Stroud, despite his impressive start, is 25th in the NFL in yards per attempt under pressure (5.1). He’s No. 2 when not pressured (9.3). Meanwhile, Joe Mixon looks revitalized and should do well against a bad Texans run defense. He has 11 rushes for 5-plus yards over the past two weeks, tied for fifth in the NFL.

The pick: Bengals 

The Dobbs performance last week was incredible. But as the Cardinals would tell you from his starts there earlier this season, he is not the most consistent quarterback. And he now takes on a Saints defense that is underrated. The Saints have forced six turnovers over the past two weeks (four interceptions, two fumbles), the most in the NFL over that span. Derek Carr was at his dinking and dunking best last week — and has actually fared pretty well against blitzes in his career — so Brian Flores’ defense shouldn’t make him too uncomfortable. And if it does, the Saints can always bring in Taysom Hill to run over people. It’s amazing the edge the Eagles and Saints have over teams in short-yardage situations.

The pick: Saints 

The Steelers are somehow 5-3 after getting through their tough part of the schedule. That means they are due for an ugly home loss. Mike Tomlin is a great coach, and that record with a soft running game and an erratic quarterback is a testament to him and his defense. But I look into my crystal ball and I see some losses coming up in the soft part of their schedule. Aaron Jones is finally healthy for the Packers, and that helps Jordan Love avoid the dreadful sequences that doomed the team in the early going.

The pick: Packers 

Will Levis got the starting job for good after he held up pretty well against a tough Steelers defense. He likes to chuck it deep, which teams have done well against the Bucs, and that should make life a little easier for Derrick Henry. I do think Todd Bowles will have some tricks up his sleeve for the rookie quarterback, so this pick comes down to Baker Mayfield. Or actually, his suspect offensive line giving him enough time against an angry Titans front. The Titans were held without a sack in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but history says Mike Vrabel’s bunch will bounce back. Tennessee recorded multiple sacks the next time out after its previous two no-sack games since 2021, and this group is on pace to post the Titans’ highest sack rate in any season under Vrabel.

The pick: Titans 

No one does a bye week like the 49ers. Not only do they get Deebo Samuel back on offense, but they trade for defensive end Chase Young. They’re going to need both against a Jaguars team that has won five straight and probably didn’t want its bye. Left tackle Cam Robinson has been a difference maker — in his four games back from suspension, he has allowed just five pressures on 162 pass-block snaps. The Jaguars’ Achilles heel had been their offensive line, and I still expect Young and Nick Bosa to kick that like Justin Gaethje. If offensive tackle Trent Williams is also back for the 49ers, this game might be over by halftime.

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The pick: 49ers

We had both the Lions and Seahawks against the Ravens, and the two NFC teams got throttled by a combined score of 75-9. Lamar Jackson didn’t miss on a pass of under 10 yards last week, and the Ravens defense is also playing very well. So, I am the last guy to advise you to pick against Baltimore. But … listen … the Browns defense is great and the Ravens are in a dangerous look-ahead spot, coming off a rout and having beaten the Browns 28-3 last month — with a Thursday night game against the hot Bengals coming up. In that first loss to Baltimore, the Browns were forced to play QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and he had three interceptions.

The pick: Browns 

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Smith again defended his lack of use of Robinson this week by saying that the rookie opens things up by not getting the ball. And the stats actually bear him out. The Falcons average 5.03 yards per play when Robinson gets a carry or target, and 6.21 when Robinson is on the field but doesn’t touch the ball. So there. And this week, it doesn’t really matter as the Cardinals can’t stop the run. Kyler Murray is back for the Cardinals, but surely there has to be some rust and some gun-shyness coming back from a torn ACL.

The pick: Falcons 

I circled the Lions when I first saw this matchup. The Chargers think they are back just because they beat the Bears and Jets, and they are coming off a short week and a Tuesday flight back from New York. The much more physical Lions are coming off a bye and have the offensive line to deal with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. They also have an underrated defense (except when they go against the Ravens). Everyone else circled the Lions, too, as the point spread has gone up all week. Oh well, sometimes the public wins.

The pick: Lions

It looked to me like the Giants gave up a little last week when DeVito came in for Daniel Jones and started throwing interceptions and running around in circles. And now they have to face a Cowboys team that beat them by 40 points in Week 1. To top it off, I don’t think Saquon Barkley is totally healthy. The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Eagles and might be sluggish against a team they have no reason to fear. But Dak Prescott is playing at a very high level, and I still think they win by three scores.

The pick: Cowboys 

Mac Jones couldn’t take advantage of a Washington team that traded away two stud defensive linemen, but I think Geno Smith can. I am not positive, as Smith has been all over the map this season. He has made some pretty passes, but too often has thrown the ball too soon or right where the defense thinks it’s going. Smith has the NFL’s lowest completion percentage in the red zone this season (40.5 percent), and his 69.4 passer rating on red-zone throws ranks 30th. The Seahawks defense also may have been a tease early in the season, and Sam Howell has been better since I yelled at him here to get rid of the ball a few weeks back. Seahawks by 3 (Smith is 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more points).

The pick: Commanders 

The Jets are coming off a short week and another horrendous offensive performance, and yet are road favorites against a reinvigorated Raiders team with interim coach Antonio Pierce. The Jets defense will make it tough on Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell, so he needs Josh Jacobs and the run game to take some pressure off of him. And who knows if the Raiders can match the emotional intensity of last week — they were so happy that Josh McDaniels was fired, they actually lit cigars up in the locker room. Still can’t take the Jets, though, because of Zach Wilson.

The pick: Raiders

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The Bills have not covered for five games in a row, and we’ve had four of those. Though Buffalo’s defensive injuries and the related falloff are well-documented, Josh Allen is just ho-hum and the Bills never try to establish a run game, which is something that would help them cover against the Broncos on Monday. Though they can’t stop the run, the Broncos do a much better job now rushing the quarterback and covering than they did in September. Denver ranks second in red-zone touchdown efficiency during its two-game winning streak (2 of 6, 33.3 percent) after ranking 19th in the same category in its first six games (53.8 percent).

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The pick: Broncos

Best bets: Browns keep it close against Ravens, Bengals brand the Texans, 49ers bounce back against Jaguars, Falcons run over Cardinals and Broncos hang in against Bills.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Patriots will be 1-0 after Belichick’s job security is questioned.

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett. 

(Top photo of Bijan Robinson: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)

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