Vecenie: Why Charlotte despite Dwight Howard's act wearing thin loses its trade with Brooklyn -

I received two phone calls from NBA executives before 7:30 a.m. (Pacific time) on Wednesday, with both featuring similar greetings in regard to the first agreed-upon draft-week trade of the year.

“What is Charlotte doing?”

Indeed, a feeling of bewilderment accompanied the Hornets’ decision to absorb Timofey Mozgov, two second-round picks and cash considerations to get out from under the Dwight Howard contract (the deal will have to wait until after the July 6 moratorium to be consummated to legally be completed under the collective bargaining agreement). While the draft picks will certainly hold value to new general manager Mitch Kupchak, this deal is all about shifting money around. Howard makes $23.8 million next season on an expiring contract. Mozgov, on the other hand, will make $16 million next season in addition to $16.7 million the year after.

For a Brooklyn team in a big market that fancies itself as a competitor for marquee free agents, the deal is a home run. The Nets will have to pay Howard for this season, which cuts into their flexibility this year. While the team could have been looking at approximately $15 million in cap space this summer had it chosen to retain Mozgov, renounce cap holds on its own free agents, and utilize said space, this deal will cut that number more than in half. But the small cost could lead to a big reward down the road.

Trading Mozgov clears his $16.7 million off the books for 2019-20. Because of that, Brooklyn reasonably projects to have over $50 million in space in the 2019 offseason — and that’s even with retaining the restricted free agency rights of D’Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, in addition to the Bird rights of starting guard Spencer Dinwiddie. If the team wanted to move on from any of those players, the number could reach approximately $75 million.

The flip side is what makes all of this very questionable for Charlotte. The team is taking on more guaranteed money, getting relatively minimal draft capital (the No. 45 pick in the 2018 Draft and the Nets’ 2021 pick, according to ESPN), and limiting its long-term flexibility — particularly during a 2019 offseason in which the organization may have to reckon with the departure of Kemba Walker.

Indeed, I’m not particularly a fan of the move for Charlotte, but here are my guesses on why the Hornets made the trade.

1. The trade (likely) gets Charlotte under the luxury tax line for 2018-19

While Charlotte does take on about $9 million more in future guaranteed salary, the way the salary spreads out is important for the Hornets. Because Mozgov is making $32.7 million over two years as opposed to the $23.8 million Howard was scheduled to make next year, the team reduces its salary commitment by nearly $8 million this coming season. That will leave the Hornets with about $111.7 million committed to 11 players, including Treveon Graham’s cap hold and not including Julyan Stone’s non-guaranteed deal. Throw in the No. 11 pick at 120 percent of the NBA draft’s rookie scale value, as well as a minimum player with one of their two second-round picks, and the team will have nearly $116 million committed to 14 players. Given that the luxury tax line is projected to be set at $123 million, the Hornets will be able to offer free agents close to the full starting salary for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($8.56 million) this offseason and still be able to stay below the tax.

With Charlotte having missed the playoffs last year, it’s understandable why ownership wouldn’t want to pay at a luxury tax level in what is a small market NBA city. This deal helps accomplish that.

2. The Hornets are paying what is likely the new normal to buy second-round picks

With the most recent salary cap increase came a rise in what teams could take in and send out in trades during the course season. Last season, the number was just $3.5 million. This season, the number increased to $5.1 million. Why is this important? Front offices expect that this increase has reset the market in regard to what it will cost to purchase a second-round pick in the NBA Draft — the situation in which cash considerations get swapped most freely every season.

Last year, the Warriors set a league record by sending the Bulls the full $3.5 million allowed for the No. 38 pick —the pick that became Jordan Bell. Prior to that, the record was $3 million, which is what the Nets paid the Jazz for the rights to Isaiah Whitehead in the 2016 NBA Draft. With this increase in the amount teams are allowed to send in trades, it is widely expected by NBA executives that the record will be set again in the 2018 NBA Draft by a team that buys its way into the second round for upwards of $4 million.

Why is that important within this equation? Well, the Hornets are taking on an extra $8.9 million in player salary with the (non-tax-related) benefit being that they get two second-round picks. Paying what is essentially $4.45 million each for two picks may seem like top-of-the-market price for those picks, but remember that the number is not actually $8.9 million in actual dollars added. The team has an undisclosed amount of money coming to it from Brooklyn, in addition to luxury tax savings that it likely would have incurred had Howard been on the roster. Speculatively, the Hornets might only be paying an extra $5 million to their projected two-year salary window, meaning they’re buying the No. 45 pick and a 2021 pick for what might only be something like $2.5 million each.

3. Steve Clifford is gone, and Dwight Howard’s act wore thin

It’s no secret that Steve Clifford’s presence played a role in Charlotte’s acquisition of Howard last offseason. Clifford was an assistant on the staffs in Orlando, where Howard saw the pinnacle of his career, and Clifford moved onto the Lakers staff the same year Orlando traded Howard to Los Angeles. Charlotte was a third reunion for the duo, and Clifford was seen at the time as the coach most likely to get production out of Howard in the NBA.

And indeed, Howard produced last year. He’s a shell of his former self in large part due to aging and the back injury that sapped some of the explosive athleticism that made him one of the NBA’s best players at his peak. But last season, Howard averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds for a Hornets team that was a bit unlucky in close games and likely better than its 36-win record indicated.

In terms of pure, individual production, Howard looks like he’s still a useful basketball player. But it’s worth noting that a lot of his impact was tied to that of Walker. Howard played 92 percent of his minutes with Walker on the floor. When they were both on the floor, the team had a solid plus-2.7 rating. Look deeper though. When Walker was off the floor and Howard was on it, Charlotte had a minus-9.6 net rating. When Walker was on the floor and Howard was off of it, the team was a plus-7.6 net rating. In that vein, it would be fair to categorize Howard’s numbers as somewhat empty.

Still, that’s not even the biggest issue. All one had to do was look on Twitter in any direction on Wednesday morning, and one could see reports on how Howard’s act had already passed its level of usefulness in Charlotte. Here’s one from Chris Mannix of Yahoo! noting the eye rolls that would ensue when Howard would demand more post touches. Or how about this one relayed from former Charlotte center Brendan Haywood by Howard Beck, stating that Howard’s act wore thin in the Hornets’ locker room? With Clifford now back in Orlando as the head coach of the Magic and Howard essentially out on an island in the locker room, it’s pretty easy to see how this deal could be addition by subtraction.

4. Remember, it was Mitch Kupchak who signed Mozgov to this contract

Timofey Mozgov shoots against Aaron Gordon | Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Kupchak seems to have an affinity for what Mozgov can bring to the table. Two years ago, he handed Mozgov the same four-year, $64 million he’s currently on right now, and the same four-year, $64 million deal that the Lakers had to attach D’Angelo Russell to in order to create flexibility for their offseason pursuits this summer.

This is purely speculative, but my guess is that Kupchak thinks Mozgov can help the Hornets as a depth option behind Cody Zeller. I’m skeptical of that notion given that Mozgov has not provided anything more than replacement level play for three years. But that’s my guess.Despite that understanding of the goals accomplished with this trade, I still think this is a poor move for Charlotte, in large part due to opportunity cost. There were better ways to accomplish all of the primary goals of the deal. Here’s one of those.

If the Hornets were set on reducing their tax bill this year and getting Howard out of their locker room, the team simply could have cut Howard following the moratorium and stretched his salary over three years, incurring a cap hit of $7.93 million in each of the next three seasons. Given that Mozgov has basically provided replacement-level play over the last three years, the team could have avoided the large cap hits in 2018-19 and 2019-20 while signing a minimum-salaried big that’s floating out on the market.

With today’s marketplace of centers being what it is, it does not seem particularly far-fetched to imagine the Hornets finding a big man in free agency who would provide what Mozgov will for under $2 million per season. So instead of paying $32 million for a backup center over the next two years, the Hornets could have paid something like $27 million over the next three, and likely gotten the same production. And if they wanted the picks that badly, the front office simply could have used its money actually allocated for trades each season to buy a pick in the No. 45-50 range for $3 million – $4 million while maintaining further cap-sheet flexibility.

Maybe this deal signals something larger at foot with the Charlotte front office. Maybe this will accompany a total house-cleaning, starting with the offloading of Walker in addition to some of the other high-priced assets on the roster. Still, much like the rest of the NBA, I just don’t think this was the move to start that process.

(Top photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

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