Why the Commanders will make the playoffs this season, and why they wont -

ASHBURN, Va. — Forget the next-game-up mentality. The NFL calendar and the team’s place in the NFC standings have the Washington Commanders in a playoff frame of mind.

Sunday night’s loss to the New York Giants (8-5-1) hurt the odds of a second postseason appearance in three seasons under coach Ron Rivera. But hurt isn’t the same as the end. The Commanders have three regular-season games remaining and currently sit as the third and final wild-card team. Other playoff hopefuls can’t pass Washington if the locals handle their business.

“The guys know the task at hand,” quarterback Taylor Heinicke said, “and they’re prepared for it.”

The journey begins Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Rather than fret over possibly losing a second consecutive game, the Commanders (7-6-1) are thinking about ways to win and their chance to keep playing football after Week 18 despite opening the season 1-4.

“That Sunday Night loss was big, and we are upset about it,” Heinicke said, “but at the same time, if someone told us in the beginning of the year, ‘You have three games left, and you control your own destiny,’ you would take it all day. … That’s all we can ask for.”

Why they’ll make it

1. They’re likely in if they go 2-1

The New York Times’ playoff simulator gives Washington an 85 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason with two more wins. That means the seventh seed. Detroit (7-7) or Seattle (7-7) would jump Washington in this scenario by winning out, but that’s a tall task, even if the surging Lions are one of the league’s hottest teams.

GO DEEPER

NFL playoff picture after Week 15: Eight spots remain with three weeks to go

Picking up a pair of wins won’t be easy, but doable. The first opponent, NFC West-leading San Francisco, makes for a significant step up in class compared to recent games against the Texans, Falcons and two versus the Giants. Two home games follow. Cleveland (6-8) won Saturday, improving to 2-1 since quarterback Deshaun Watson’s return from suspension, but is 2-5 on the road.

Dallas defeated Washington handily in Week 4 behind backup quarterback Cooper Rush. It’s quite possible Rush will start in Week 18 instead of Dak Prescott if the Cowboys (10-4) clinch the fifth seed. But if Dallas rests starters, that could also mean the absence of linebacker Micah Parsons and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, among others.

2. They have one of the best defenses in football

The Commanders rank 10th in total defense and fourth against the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. TruMedia shows Washington fourth in quarterback pressures per dropback (36.3 percent) and seventh in sacks/QB hits (90). What else? Tied for third in takeaways (14) and fifth in turnover margin (plus-5) since Week 6.

Jonathan Allen (16) and Daron Payne (15) are in the top four among DTs in tackles for loss. Pro Football Focus rates Kamren Curl third among safeties this season, and … You get the point. This unit isn’t without concerns, but even in a down showing against the Giants based on recent performances, Washington’s defense allowed only 13 points.

3. They are as healthy as they’ve been all season

The injured reserve list includes notables like linebacker Cole Holcomb and running back J.D. McKissic, not to mention the team’s top two centers. Every team loses some players throughout the season. Otherwise, Washington is in fair shape for Week 16.

Every Week 1 starter still with the organization is available except for Holcomb and center Chase Roullier. That includes cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, who said Tuesday that he would be available to face the 49ers after missing the last three games (plus a bye week) with an ankle injury.

On St-Juste. Rivera said he "moved around very well" today. https://t.co/2IQka25e0i

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 20, 2022

Only reserve offensive lineman Saahdiq Charles received a “did not participate” label in practice last week and for Wednesday’s walk-through. Maybe, maybe, maybe this is the week defensive end Chase Young (knee) makes his season debut. If adding the 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year is deemed a luxury, that’s a good sign for the health of the DL.

GO DEEPER

Aldridge: It's Chase Young's career. But at some point, he has to restart it. Why not Sunday?

4. Brian Robinson isn’t messing around

The running back’s remarkable rookie season and physical recovery have gone next-level. Since Week 10, Robinson is sixth in rushing yards (433), 10th in carries (92), eighth in yards per carry (4.71; min. 50 attempts), first in total rush EPA (15.91), tied for first in successful play rate (50 percent) on rush attempts (min. 50 attempts) and seventh in third-down conversion rate (77.8 percent). Robinson’s pile-moving, tone-setting runs rank high on the “Beast Mode” scale.

For this team this year, he’s the player Washington’s game plan should be built around, with a healthy dose of Antonio Gibson. Just ask the head coach.

“I think we can run the football, and we can run the football downhill,” Rivera said this week of the team’s offensive identity. “And off of that, we can be a play-action team, a bootleg team, a physical upfront team. … We’ve seen that has been successful, and we got to continue with that type of mentality.”

Why they won’t make it

1. The margin of error is insanely thin

The real cautionary tale from Sunday night’s loss to the Giants wasn’t that the offense continued struggling in the red zone. It’s that winning becomes a dice roll when that transpires, and the defense is unable to generate any turnovers or sacks. Even when the run game is the man driver of clock-controlling drives, the offense is still a turnover away from problems if the defense or special teams don’t help with special plays.

Since Week 5, five of Washington’s 10 games have come down to a pass into the end zone or to the 1-yard line with under a minute remaining. Washington won three (Chicago, Indianapolis, Atlanta) and lost two (Tennessee, New York). Of those 10, eight finished as one-score games.

2. The offensive line remains concerning

For all the future QB talk in these parts — justifiable, of course — don’t sleep on how much fixing is required up front. In 2023, there might be three new interior starters and perhaps a new right tackle if Sam Cosmi shifts to guard. None of this reflects on contract status, but performance.

Washington has allowed 40 sacks, tied for the seventh-most. While allowing 2.1 per game (17) over Heinicke’s eight stats suggests improvement, that’s a reflection of the quarterback’s mobility, as the pressure allowed rate per dropback in this stretch is higher (40.4 percent, 29th) than the season version (36.9 percent).

GO DEEPER

Aldridge: Ron Rivera has a QB decision to make, with no easy answer — Heinicke or Wentz?

Part of the calculus with a potential quarterback switch is whether taking more sacks with Carson Wentz offsets his big-play potential. Based on the pressure rate and the 23 sacks he took in six starts, maybe not. Pass protection concerns help explain a rise in 12 personnel. Washington ranks 13th in two-TE sets on the season (20.3 percent), but fourth since Week 10 (28.2 percent) and first in Week 15 (39.7 percent). Those packages mean there are fewer reps for the talented wide receivers.

3. The red-zone struggles are real

Moving the ball isn’t enough. Washington has labored to find the end zone with the ball inside the 20-yard line. Over the past eight games — the Heinicke starts — the Commanders are 14th in the percentage of red zone chances resulting in points (87.0) but 26th in touchdown percentage (47.8). This is surely where the internal conversations about re-inserting the 6-foot-5 Wentz into the lineup start, and perhaps finish. Washington has scored more than 23 points only once since Week 2.

That won’t be enough for the postseason, and it’s not like the defense can hold opponents under 20 per game every week. Washington’s playmakers offer potential for more. There’s not much tweaking available on the line. Quarterback is another story.

Taylor Heinicke on the potential for a QB change: "I just try to focus … on the game and go get a win. … If they go to Carson, I'll be the best backup I can be."

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 20, 2022

This week, Rivera has sounded like a coach who was ready to pull Heinicke if Washington hadn’t scored quickly in the third quarter against New York and is maintaining that approach going forward. If the red zone woes continue, Wentz might enter — and Washington could exit the playoff conversation.

(Photo of Brian Robinson: Brad Mills / USA Today)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2lpa3FiaHxzfJFrZmpqX2d%2BcK%2FOpqSappSav7R5z6WYsqeWm3qwsMOsZKeek2LEprHKZmhvZw%3D%3D